The Dunning-Kruger effect was theorized by psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger in a 1999 study. They proposed that there is a cognitive bias where individuals with knowledge or ability within a specific area have a propensity to overestimate their own competence in a particular field. This overestimation may come about due to a lack of the necessary metacognitive skills to accurately determine their own competence. A common phrase used to summarize this phenomenon is that of “they don’t know, what they don’t know.” This effect may be seen in examples of recent high school or college graduates who sometimes express a type of hubris, where they believe that they are intellectually superior to others. Expecting parents sometimes experience this effect where before their child is born, they have delusions of what type of parents they will be. “My kids won’t get away with that,” “I won’t be doing that with my children,” or maybe prejudging other parents in how they choose to raise their kids. Once their children are born, new parents might soon realize that parenting is much more complex and difficult than what they first believed.

Conversely, those individuals who are highly knowledgeable or skilled in a particular field often underestimate their own competence. This underestimation may manifest because some individuals assume that challenges or projects that are easy for them, may also be easy for most others. Well-seasoned individuals in any particular field of knowledge, skill, or ability often gain much wisdom from experience, adaptation, and application of their specific skill set. For some people, this is also highly humbling as the individual realizes that the more someone knows, they ironically recognize that there is so much more to learn.

The Dunning-Kruger effect can be summarized into four key stages:

1. Incompetence and Confidence: Individuals possessing low skill levels or knowledge may fail to acknowledge their lack of skill, leading to inflated self-assessments and high confidence.
2. Awareness of Incompetence: Once an individual acquires more knowledge and experience, they may start to become more aware of their own incompetence, which in turn leads to a further decrease in confidence.
3. Competence along with Cautious Confidence: With further experience, practice, and learning, individuals begin to develop true competence. As their confidence begins to increase again, they can more accurately showcase their abilities.
4. Mastery with Modesty: More highly skilled individuals will often acknowledge the complexities of a particular domain and realize how much they still don’t know. This awareness can lead to modesty or humbleness about their abilities, despite the individual being highly competent in their specific field.

The Dunning-Kruger effect highlights the importance of seeking self-awareness and striving to continue to learn new things. It proposes that improving one’s metacognitive skills, such as the ability to self-assess one’s own knowledge and performance accurately can help minimize the effect. In summary, the Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias where individuals with low knowledge, ability, or competence in a specific area may overestimate their own skill level. On the other hand, people with a high competency in a particular field often underestimate their relative ability. This may occur due to the same skills that contribute to competence are also needed to recognize competence, leading to a disconnect between self-assessment and actual ability.

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Jim Moltzan

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